AIM Framework glossary
Bayesian Mimetic Crisis Principle
Canonical definition
The domain principle that mimetic crises are produced by content-agnostic Bayesian compounding (Axiom 8) of M-coupled Beliefs through the population, with the M-channel's content-agnostic compounding producing the felt-crisis phenomenology through A-precarity (perceived survival threat), I-domain destruction (loss of self-endorsed activity), and Status displacement (M-channel ranking inversion with no true deficit beneath it), and with the formal mechanism being the Bayesian lock-in process that operates identically on accurate and inaccurate Beliefs once Coupling Strength exceeds the Subcriticality Threshold.
Explanation
The Bayesian Mimetic Crisis Principle is the formal architectural reason that mimetic crises are not random or culturally contingent but follow predictable dynamics. When M-coupled Beliefs propagate through a population, the Bayesian updating mechanism (Axiom 8) compounds them content-agnostically: the same updating logic that consolidates accurate Beliefs about the physical world also consolidates inaccurate scapegoat narratives, because the updating mechanism does not evaluate Truth, it only tracks evidence-weighted probability. When Coupling Strength exceeds the Subcriticality Threshold, the compounding becomes self-reinforcing and the system enters mimetic crisis. The principle and the Unifying Crisis Principle are one result at two levels of description: the Bayesian Mimetic Crisis Principle establishes that the updating locks in above the Subcriticality Threshold, and the Unifying Crisis Principle establishes what a population in that condition does.
Epistemic status
Framework-Specific Domain Principle; derived from Axiom 8 (Bayesian Belief Dynamics). The Bayesian-layer counterpart of the Unifying Crisis Principle (Chapter 17, Section 17.2), the two being one result at two levels of description.
Derivation
Also in the entry
Source: Axiom 8 (Bayesian Belief Dynamics); Chapter 2 (Unifying Crisis Principle, Crisis State Architecture, Bayesian Lock-In entries); Chapter 13 (Bayesian Belief Dynamics canonical treatment). Substrate specification. The principle's crisis-dynamics operate through the M-channel's content-agnostic Bayesian compounding. The felt-crisis phenomenology includes A-precarity, I-domain destruction, and Status displacement, but these are not on a par as world-costs: A-precarity and I-domain destruction are world-anchored losses; Status displacement is an M-channel phenomenological event (ranking inversion with no true deficit beneath it). World damage from the cascade still lands as A-floor and I-domain failure, including A and I harms produced through Status contests. The principle is therefore the M-channel mechanism that produces multi-channel crisis phenomenology while the decoherence-relevant costs remain A and I.