AIM Framework glossary
Induced-Decoherence Test
Canonical definition
The Induced-Decoherence Test is the criterion of adequacy for any model of a system in which the model is itself a coupled node, holding that the model's predictive fit through the system's high-Coupling-Strength, long-Decoherence-Time stable phase carries no information about the model's quality, because such fit is the expected output of the coupling and confirms only the endogeneity of the system; the model is corroborated only by its capacity to predict the conditions of the system's decoherence, the crisis at which Decoherence Time expires and the system transitions through the Critical-Coupling Fold, and the decisive examination is therefore the construction of a low-Coupling-Strength, short-Decoherence-Time environment in which the model's predicted collapse conditions are induced and observed. A model that predicts the induced collapse is corroborated; a model that fits the stable phase but fails to predict the induced collapse is incomplete and not fit for purpose; and a model for which no such environment can be constructed has had the endogeneity of its corroboration established by elimination. The Test is the experimental form of the Provenance Rule applied to a model rather than to a single Belief. Derived at Chapter 14, Section 14.10.4.1.
Explanation
If a model only ever gets tested against data the model itself helped to create, then "it fits the data" proves nothing, of course it fits, it helped write the answer. The only honest test is whether the model can predict the moment the whole thing falls over, because the collapse is the one event the model did not help to stage. So the real experiment is to build a small, controlled, fast-feedback version of the system where you can deliberately trigger the collapse and check whether the model saw it coming. Predict the crash, and the model has earned trust. Fit the calm but miss the crash, and the model is not good enough. And if you cannot even build a setting where the model could be caught out, that itself tells you its apparent success was never real evidence.
Epistemic status
Framework-Specific Diagnostic.