AIM Framework glossary
Selection-Framing Coincidence Test
Canonical definition
The Selection-Framing Coincidence Test is the diagnostic procedure for distinguishing accurate agent-attribution from confabulated scapegoating, operationalised through the question: If they are as powerful and threatening as described, why can we target them without expecting overwhelming retaliation? The test examines whether the features that led to target selection (prey-characteristics versus predator-characteristics) coincide with the features invoked in the justificatory framing (threat versus vulnerability), with coincidence indicating potential accuracy and non-coincidence indicating confabulation.
Explanation
Genuine predators cannot be safely targeted by groups lacking superior force; if a target can be persecuted by those claiming to be threatened by it, the selection occurred through prey-detection regardless of how the targeting is framed. In genuine threat scenarios, the agent exhibits predator-characteristics (capability, hostile intent), these characteristics trigger predator-detection systems, selection occurs because of the predator-characteristics, and framing matches selection (the threat is real. In confabulated scapegoating, the agent exhibits prey-characteristics (vulnerability, reciprocity-exemption), these characteristics trigger prey-detection systems for target selection, but the Confabulation requires predator-framing for justification) framing contradicts selection, and the threat is constructed. Historical scapegoats (Jews in medieval to 20th century Europe, Tutsis in Rwanda, Rohingya in Myanmar, Armenians in Turkey) consistently exhibit this signature: selected because vulnerable (minority, identifiable, lacking powerful allies) but framed as threatening (controlling finance, planning genocide, threatening the nation). The test therefore provides a reliable diagnostic: when prey-selection combines with predator-framing, the attribution is confabulated with near-certainty. (Framework-Specific Diagnostic)
Epistemic status
Framework-Specific Diagnostic.