AIM Framework glossary
Posterior
Canonical definition
The Posterior, or Posterior Probability, is the probability assignment P(H | E) that the Thinker holds over a Hypothesis H within the representable Hypothesis Space after Bayesian Updating has incorporated the current Evidence E, computed from the Prior P(H) and the Likelihood P(E | H). The Posterior of the current updating cycle becomes the Prior of the next. The Posterior is the output of Ground-Resolution, the evaluative operation the Thinker contributes to Conscious Cognition for a single updating cycle; it carries a probability profile over and a magnitude of the Interference Term. Whether what the cycle returns amounts to a Belief depends on whether probability mass has collapsed to near-unity on a single Hypothesis, whether the Interference Term has decohered to zero, and the closure-demand conditions under which the cycle terminated.
Explanation
A Posterior is the updated list-of-plausibilities your mind holds after taking in the latest piece of information. It is the Prior, rebalanced. The Posterior is not yet “a Belief” in the full sense: whether it becomes one depends on how much doubt is still being held against it. A confidently believed falsehood and a carefully held hypothetical can, in principle, carry the same numerical Posterior; what distinguishes them is the magnitude of doubt (the Interference Term) sustained at the moment the cycle terminates. A candidate Imagination has constructed and Ground-Resolution has not yet run on carries no Posterior at all. This is why Bayesian arithmetic alone does not tell you whether what an Individual has arrived at is Confabulation or the product of I-Override.
Epistemic status
Inherited (standard Bayesian primitive) with Framework-Specific Integration.
Derivation
Chapter 4, Section 4.3.8; Chapter 13, Section 13.2.1; Chapter 15, Section 15.2; Chapter 4, Section 4.4.3; Chapter 11, Section 11.3.1; Appendix A, Section A.5.6.