AIM Framework glossary
Posterior Belief
Canonical definition
Posterior Belief, denoted P(H | E), is the degree to which a Hypothesis H is held to be true after Bayesian Updating: the probability Conscious Cognition assigns to H once the current Evidence E has been incorporated, computed from the Prior Belief and the Likelihood. It is a matter of degree, the same quantity expresses holding H false (low) or true (high), and updating moves it along that scale. It is fully general as to subject matter. The degree of holding-true is not a measure of Truth: a Posterior Belief can be updated to near-certainty and still fail to correspond (Certainty-Truth Independence). The Posterior Belief of one cycle becomes the Prior Belief of the next. The Posterior Belief over the source of a motivation is the specialisation named Source Belief; there the recursion (each Posterior becoming the next Prior) is the hinge of the Confabulation Cascade, because each update that raises Authenticity Belief lowers the prior on the Mimetic Hypothesis before the next want is even examined.
Explanation
A posterior Belief is how strongly you lean toward a Hypothesis being true after weighing the latest evidence, your prior Belief rebalanced by how well the evidence fits. It is still a dial, not a verdict: you can update all the way to near-certainty and still be wrong. It applies to any question. Because this round's answer becomes next round's starting point, Beliefs compound; when the question is your own motivation, a run of updates toward "authentic" steadily lowers the odds you will ever assign to a mimetic explanation, which is how sincere self-misreading hardens into certainty.
Epistemic status
Framework-general epistemic term. The motivational specialisation is Source Belief.