AIM Framework glossary
Succession Gradient
Canonical definition
The Succession Gradient is the gradient prediction generated by the Succession Decoherence Principle: succession severity correlates with buffer capture completeness, not merely with the presence or absence of authoritarian rule. Systems are classified into four types: (1) minimal capture (liberal democracies), high Buffer Independence, institutional mediation of transitions, low severity; (2) selective capture (competitive authoritarian regimes), partial buffer independence, transitions partially mediated by uncaptured institutions, moderate severity; (3) near-complete capture (totalitarian regimes), minimal residual independence, transitions proceed with minimal institutional mediation, high severity; (4) complete capture (personal dictatorships), no Buffer Independence, entire state apparatus simultaneously contested, maximal severity.
Explanation
A scale from peaceful leadership changes to catastrophic power struggles, determined by how much of the country the outgoing ruler personally controlled. Democracies change leaders smoothly because many institutions operate independently. Total dictatorships collapse violently because nothing works without the dictator. In between, the more institutions the ruler controlled, the worse the succession crisis, and you can predict roughly how bad it will be by counting how many institutions still function on their own.
Epistemic status
Framework-Specific Construct.